Recent Articles and Podcast Appearances
My latest article for Palladium Magazine goes into depth on how individuals can shape history within a structuralist framework, looking specifically at Cesare Borgia, Mao Zedong and Cao Cao of the Three Kingdoms period in China.
Palladium Podcast 77: Nicolas Villarreal on Socialist Cybernetics
A great discussion I had with Ash Milton of Palladium about socialist cybernetics and the future of work.
Varn Vlog: Nicolas Villareal on the Problems of Financialization
Another fantastic conversation, this time with Derrick Varn on his youtube channel. I’ve had several great talks with his recently, most behind the paywall of his patreon, so be sure to check that out for more. This one is public and we get into the nitty gritty of financialization, profitability, and some digressions about bullshit jobs.
I’ve also recently left my full-time job as a proposal writer and analyst to focus on my writing and freelance work. This should allow me to put out some more time to things like this blog and my articles elsewhere. Most of my freelance work besides writing is bookkeeping/accounting services, feel free to get in touch if you’re interested in that.
Economic Update
Signs point to the housing market finally hitting its peak, this thread is fully of excellent anecdotes of buyers gaining more leverage in transactions across the country.
Should the housing bubble burst, it would likely be quite dramatic given the level of imbalance between rents and housing prices, which has now reached highs almost equal pre-2008.
At the same time, we’ve experienced our first negative yoy change in profit rates since the economy recovered from covid.
Real consumption of both durable and non-durable goods are also beginning to fall, a consequence of higher prices of basic necessities eating into consumer’s budgets.
The stock market rout has been in the headlines, and unfortunately for us, the stock market is generally correlated with future economic growth only when it is in decline. Due to the high volatility we’ve experienced, indexes of financial stress are also going up.
While a recession may not be immanent, we are almost certainly late cycle. Ever increasing inflation means that consumers must choose to forgo some consumption, and this may cause the party to come crashing down in certain industries, leading to a spiral of unemployment and lower consumption until we bottom out. As you can see below, real income to the working class has been falling since the start of the year. Falling consumption, rising interest rates, and big price declines in housing and stocks seem all but certain at this point.